Centre for Quantitative History

Journal Publications

Journal Publications

April 24, 2024
Journal Publications
近代鄉村土地、收入與消費不平等的綜合考察——以滿鐵調查為例 Examining Inequality in Land Ownership, Income, and Consumption Patterns in Modern Rural Areas: Insights from the Manchurian Railway Survey

已有對近代鄉村不平等的研究主要關注地權分配,好少關注收入、消費分配,特別是同時討論三者之間嘅關係。 利用滿鐵調查32個村莊嘅數據,發現從戶均角度睇,土地不平等的變動對收入不平等和消費不平等的變動有一定的解釋力,收入不平等的變動對消費不平等的變動則有較大的解釋力。 但從人均角度睇,土地不平等對收入不平等和消費不平等嘅解釋力以及收入不平等對消費不平等嘅解釋力都好有限。 另外,也發現土地租佃市場和借貸市場的發展,有助於減少收入和消費嘅不平等。

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April 24, 2024
Journal Publications
量化歷史與社會網絡分析:原理與應用 Quantitative History and Social Network Analysis: Theories and Applications

社會網路分析是目前被廣泛應用的研究方法,特別是在一些交叉學科之中。 本文以量化歷史研究中的社會網路分析為例,基於政治、軍事、思想文化、經濟等領域的案例,介紹其原理與應用,說明其在説明理解社會結構中的人,建立微觀個體與宏觀社會現象之間的聯繫,揭示社會複雜特徵等方面的價值。

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April 5, 2024
Journal Publications
Classicism and Modern Growth: The Shadow of the Sages

This paper examines how the worship of ancient wisdom affects economic progress in historical China, where the learned class embraced classical wisdom for millennia but encountered the shock of Western industrial influence in the mid-nineteenth century. Using the number of sage temples to measure the strength of classical worship in 269 prefectures, I find that classical worship discouraged intellectuals from appreciating modern learning and thus inhibited industrialization between 1858 and 1927. By contrast, industrialization grew faster in regions less constrained by classicism. This finding implies the importance of cultural entrepreneurship, or the lack thereof, in shaping modern economic growth.

“The humor of blaming the present, and admiring the past, is strongly rooted in human nature, and has an influence even on persons endued with the profoundest judgment and most extensive learning.”

—David Hume (1754, p. 464).

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October 3, 2023
Journal Publications
The Legal Origins of Financial Development: Evidence from the Shanghai Concessions

The primary challenge to assessing the legal origins view of comparative financial development is identifying exogenous changes in legal systems. We assemble new data on Shanghai’s British and French concessions between 1845 and 1936. Two regime changes altered British and French legal jurisdiction over their respective concessions. By examining the changing application of different legal traditions to adjacent neighborhoods within the same city and controlling for military, economic, and political characteristics, we offer new evidence consistent with the legal origins view: the financial development advantage in the British concession widened after Western legal jurisdiction intensified and narrowed after it abated.

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January 17, 2023
Journal Publications
Shaking Legitimacy: The Impact of Earthquakes on Conflict in Historical China

This paper examines the causal effect of political legitimacy on stability, using the historical case of Imperial China. Chinese rulers ascribed their legitimacy to a heavenly mandate. Calamities like earthquakes were considered to be a sign of weakened approval, making quakes a proxy for a negative legitimacy shock. I use quake-induced minor shaking (i.e., strong enough to be felt, but too weak to cause material damage) to demonstrate that legitimacy shocks cause more conflicts. I examine whether quakes serve as a coordination device to overcome collective action problems.

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