兩千年中國經濟增長 China’s GDP over Two Millennia

兩千年中國經濟增長

中國人民大學農業與農村發展學院助理教授翟潤卓構建了從秦代到1949年連續的、十年分辨率的中國歷史GDP數據集。在兩千多年的歷史中，中國經濟增長軌跡呈現出千年尺度的準倒U型趨勢。從秦代到北宋初期，人均GDP從380國際元（1990年水平）持續增長至1949年之前的最高水平1,430國際元。自北宋以後，人均GDP則表現出長期震盪下降的趨勢，直到19世紀後期長期維持在550國際元的水平。

在本次量化歷史網上講座，翟潤卓將解釋經濟增長過程的解構顯示，在兩千多年的歷史中，中國歷史經濟增長呈現出一種馬爾薩斯風格的人口驅動模式，但並不完全符合經典馬爾薩斯(Malthusian)理論中「工資鐵律」所描繪的長期停滯圖景。

China’s GDP over Two Millennia

Runzhuo Zhai of Renmin University of China constructs, for the first time, a decadal GDP dataset for China from 220 BCE to 1949 CE, which, when linked to adjusted post-1949 data based on official surveys, offers a clear view of China’s economic performance over the past two millennia. The continuous series enables testing of Malthusian theory. Our findings indicate that Malthus’s prediction of stagnant per capita income in pre-modern economies likely applies only to the last millennium. Earlier periods in China, representing at least a quarter of the global population, did not experience prolonged stagnation. Furthermore, Malthus’s assumption that population growth outpaces food production may not universally apply to all pre-modern periods. Theoretical social scientists should approach Malthusian theory with caution when describing premodern economies.

Discussant: Kaixiang Peng, Professor, School of Economics and Management, Wuhan University

*This webinar will be conducted in Mandarin.