運動與國家 Movement and the State

運動與國家

中國人民大學公共管理學院教授張瓊考察了在1925年發生的中國五卅運動——時間很短，且通常被看作失敗的群眾運動。在本次量化歷史網上講座中，張瓊將介紹這場運動如何在之後的幾十年裏影響國家形成的過程。這次反帝動員由新成立的中國共產黨推動，迅速擴及全國、隨後又被鎮壓。張瓊借助運動波及程度在空間上的差異進行識別，得到以下幾點主要發現。 第一，五卅運動明顯加快了中共在地方的組織建設。 第二，運動的影響向外擴散。其傳播主要通過兩條途徑：黨員向其他地方的流動，以及組織方式的借鑒與效仿。 第三，中共的迅速發展與地方思想觀念的變化相伴出現。這些地方出版的共產主義相關書籍有所增加，新生兒取名也更常帶有工人階級色彩。與此同時，我們沒有找到充分證據，說明軍事能力隨之增強，或敵對黨派的攻擊相應減少。第四，在全面內戰期間，五卅運動波及的地區，比條件相近但未受波及的地區更早在中共領導下獲得解放。第五，中華人民共和國成立以後，這些地區在50—70年代系列運動中參與程度更高且行動更積極，改革開放以後政策方向轉變時調整更遲緩。到21世紀，當地民眾對政府的評價相對更低，對外態度相對更負面。

評論人: 廈門大學經濟學院和王亞南經濟研究院教授李嘉楠

Movement and the State

In this Quantitative History Webinar, Qiong Zhang of Renmin University of China will examine how the May Thirtieth Movement of 1925—a short-lived, nationwide anti-imperialist mobilization led primarily by the newly founded Chinese Communist Party (CCP) and swiftly repressed—shaped state formation in China over subsequent decades.

Using spatial variation in exposure to the movement, Zhang finds that it accelerated local CCP organization and generated spillovers through member migration and the spread of organizational models. The party’s growth coincided with ideological change, including more communist-related books and stronger working-class associations in newborn names, but little evidence of greater military capacity or fewer attacks by rival parties. During the full-scale civil war, the CCP captured exposed areas earlier than comparable areas. After the founding of the People’s Republic of China, those areas showed more radical behaviour during far-left campaigns, slower adjustment to rightward policy shifts, and, by the twenty-first century, greater government dissatisfaction and stronger anti-foreign attitudes.

Discussant: Jianan Li, Professor, School of Economics and the Wang Yanan Institute for Studies in Economics (WISE), Xiamen University

*This webinar will be conducted in Mandarin.