《1933》(1933, A Year of No Significance)

《1933》

1933年（民國二十二年）是中國近代經濟史研究中一個繞不開的年份，學界已圍繞 GDP 等流量指標開展大量研究，但針對該年份國民財富存量及其分配格局的系統性量化工作仍有待拓展。 中國社會科學院金融研究所資本市場研究室副研究員王慶利用大量二手資料與部分一手史料，估算 1933 年中國國民財富積累與分配狀況，並編制一套符合國民經濟核算體系（SNA）規範的國家資產負債表。 在此基礎上形成的中國長期國家資產負債表數據集為跨時期、跨國別的比較研究，提供統一分析基準，可以對標以皮凱蒂等學者為代表的全球財富研究，推動圍繞歷史財富積累機制與分配不平等問題的國際學術對話。

在本次量化歷史網上講座中，王慶將介紹本研究的出發點、主要方法以及主要發現，從存量視角重新審視 1933 年中國的社會經濟格局，為理解中國的現代化進程提供新的經驗證據與分析思路。

1933, A Year of No Significance

As a well-established benchmark year for the study of the Republican-era economy, 1933 has been extensively examined through flow variables such as GDP. Nevertheless, systematic quantitative documentation of the national wealth stock and its distributional patterns for this specific year remains underdeveloped.

Drawing on comprehensive secondary archives and verified primary sources, Qing Wang of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS) estimates national wealth accumulation and distribution in 1933 and compiles a national balance sheet consistent with standard System of National Accounts (SNA) frameworks. By introducing stock-based macroeconomic accounting, the research complements conventional GDP-centered flow analysis and enriches the quantitative paradigm for studying modern China’s macroeconomy.

This standardized dataset establishes a consistent analytical benchmark for cross-temporal and cross-national comparative research, enabling comparative analysis with global wealth studies exemplified by the work of Professor Thomas Piketty and fellow scholars. Such comparisons facilitate rigorous international dialogue on the mechanisms of historical wealth accumulation and distributional inequality.

In this Quantitative History Webinar, Qing Wang will outline the project’s research design, quantitative methodology, and key empirical findings. It offers a novel stock-based perspective for reinterpreting China’s economic endowments and wealth stratification in 1933, contributing new empirical evidence and analytical insights to quantitative economic history and long-term growth studies.

*This webinar will be conducted in Mandarin.